Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights
Model projection
Maple Leafs 51%Golden Knights 49%
Projected score2.7 – 2.6expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline-103 / +103Maple Leafs / Golden Knights
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 454.1 | 494.9 | Golden Knights |
| Coaching | 296.5 | 464.9 | Golden Knights |
| Offense | 242.1 | 400.5 | Golden Knights |
| Defense | 390.4 | 352.8 | Maple Leafs |
| Overtime | 309.3 | 284.4 | Maple Leafs |
| Opponents | 42.7 | 50.3 | Golden Knights |
| Global | 187.9 | 251.6 | Golden Knights |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blocked Shots / Game (PK) | Defense | 1.8 · 100 | 0.6 · 0 |
| Empty-Net Goals per Game (Proxy) | Coaching | 0 · 2.8 | 0.33 · 89 |
| Top 2 Defensemen Production vs Team (PP) | Offense | 33% · 0 | 11% · 85.7 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | 0.22 · 15.1 | 0.67 · 100 |
| Shorthanded Goals Allowed | Offense | 0.33 · 0 | 0 · 83.9 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,600 · 0 | 897 · 83.8 |
| Shots Against / OT | Overtime | 1 · 70.1 | 3.5 · 0 |
| Shorthanded Opportunities / PK Minute (Proxy) | Defense | 0.5 · 100 | 0.62 · 36.7 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 33% · 38.6 | 67% · 100 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 15 · 53 | 9.7 · 0 |
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | 0 · 50.8 | -0.67 · 0 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 19.1 · 53.2 | 13.3 · 100 |
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Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights on October 8, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Toronto Maple Leafs power ranking and Vegas Golden Knights power ranking.