Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators
Model projection
Flyers 54%Senators 47%
Projected score3 – 2.3expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline-115 / +115Flyers / Senators
Market moneyline-105 / -115DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Flyers | Senators | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 415.9 | 454 | Senators |
| Coaching | 248.5 | 315.5 | Senators |
| Offense | 159.1 | 238.7 | Senators |
| Defense | 293.6 | 385.5 | Senators |
| Overtime | 306.9 | 328.2 | Senators |
| Opponents | 40.1 | 37.6 | Flyers |
| Global | 194.5 | 224.1 | Senators |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Flyers | Senators |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals Against / Game | Defense | 4.3 · 0 | 1.5 · 100 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | -0.46 · 0 | 0.33 · 100 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| Opponent Shots / Game | Defense | 39.5 · 0 | 24 · 94.8 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 7.7 | 3 · 100 |
| Shorthanded Goals Allowed | Offense | 0.25 · 0 | 0 · 83.9 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 50% · 20.2 | 100% · 100 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.102 · 76.7 | 0.116 · 0 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 2 · 73.7 | 0 · 0 |
| Shorthanded Opportunities / PK Minute (Proxy) | Defense | 0.57 · 83.1 | 0.66 · 11.3 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | 0.04 · 0 | 0.42 · 66.2 |
| Average Points/Game Top 3 Forwards | Offense | 0.42 · 13.5 | 1.5 · 71.5 |
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Flyers vs Senators matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators on October 8, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers power ranking and Ottawa Senators power ranking.