Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Model projection
Wild 50%Lightning 50%
Projected score2.8 – 2.9expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline+101 / -101Wild / Lightning
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Wild | Lightning | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 454.7 | 426.8 | Wild |
| Coaching | 381.4 | 409.9 | Lightning |
| Offense | 425.1 | 321.7 | Wild |
| Defense | 404.3 | 418.7 | Lightning |
| Overtime | 319 | 310.3 | Wild |
| Opponents | 22.7 | 29.1 | Lightning |
| Global | 227.7 | 296.1 | Lightning |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Wild | Lightning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals / Powerplay Minute | Offense | 0.06 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Points / Powerplay Minute | Offense | 0.18 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Powerplay Impacts | Global | 43% · 0 | 0% · 100 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 25.2% · 23.2 | 46.5% · 100 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,678 · 0 | 1,004 · 69.9 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | 0.08 · 70.5 | -0.33 · 7.7 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 10.5 · 0 | 15.3 · 57.9 |
| Assists / Powerplay Minute | Offense | 0.12 · 78.9 | 0 · 25.8 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.12 · 100 | 0.107 · 50.5 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 3 · 100 | 2 · 56.4 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 39.2% · 25.6 | 27.2% · 69.1 |
| Top 2 Defensemen Production vs Team (PP) | Offense | 11% · 85.7 | — · 50 |
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Wild vs Lightning matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning on October 8, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Minnesota Wild power ranking and Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking.