Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames
Model projection
Avalanche 48%Flames 52%
Projected score3.9 – 4.3expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline+107 / -107Avalanche / Flames
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Avalanche | Flames | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 379.7 | 382.4 | Flames |
| Coaching | 268 | 197.8 | Avalanche |
| Offense | 390.6 | 353.8 | Avalanche |
| Defense | 396.7 | 306.8 | Avalanche |
| Overtime | 328.2 | 286 | Avalanche |
| Opponents | 85.3 | 57.3 | Avalanche |
| Global | 250.9 | 173.5 | Avalanche |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Avalanche | Flames |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom-6 Forwards Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | 0.5 · 100 | -1 · 0 |
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | 1 · 100 | -1.5 · 0 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 4 · 100 | 1 · 7.7 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | 1.1 · 100 | 0.19 · 7.9 |
| Average Points/Game Top 3 Forwards | Offense | 2.17 · 100 | 0.44 · 15 |
| Shorthanded Goals Allowed | Offense | 1 · 0 | 0 · 83.9 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 42.1% · 85.2 | 19.8% · 3.4 |
| Goals Against / Game | Defense | 2.5 · 78.1 | 5.3 · 0 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.118 · 0 | 0.104 · 64.2 |
| Shot Attempts / Game | Offense | 56.2 · 43.1 | 67.4 · 100 |
| Shots / Game | Offense | 32.5 · 92.3 | 27.3 · 40.1 |
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Avalanche vs Flames matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames on October 8, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Colorado Avalanche power ranking and Calgary Flames power ranking.