Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals
Model projection
Penguins 46%Capitals 54%
Projected score1.7 – 2.5expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline+117 / -117Penguins / Capitals
Market moneyline+142 / -170DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Penguins | Capitals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 343.8 | 544.2 | Capitals |
| Coaching | 243 | 291.7 | Capitals |
| Offense | 453.4 | 214.1 | Penguins |
| Defense | 464.4 | 371 | Penguins |
| Overtime | 373.5 | 355.2 | Penguins |
| Opponents | 30.8 | 31.1 | Capitals |
| Global | 299.6 | 293.9 | Penguins |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Penguins | Capitals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Points/Game | Offense | 1.25 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 100% · 100 | 50% · 0 |
| Shut Outs | Defense | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| OT Win Ratio (wins / opportunities) | Overtime | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| OT Wins Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 0 · 0 | 4 · 92.3 |
| Team Physicality | Global | -0.36 · 13.4 | 1.01 · 100 |
| Top 5 Production Ratio vs Team (PP) | Offense | 75% · 75 | 100% · 0 |
| Blocked Shots / Game (PK) | Defense | 1.4 · 33.2 | 3.3 · 100 |
| Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Offense | 3 · 91.7 | 1 · 25 |
| Top 2 Defensemen Production vs Team (PP) | Offense | 25% · 64.3 | 50% · 0 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,200 · 64.1 | 2,080 · 4.6 |
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Penguins vs Capitals matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals on October 7, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Pittsburgh Penguins power ranking and Washington Capitals power ranking.