Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings
Model projection
Senators 49%Red Wings 51%
Projected score1.8 – 2.1expected goals
Overtime27%chance of OT
Model moneyline+105 / -105Senators / Red Wings
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Senators | Red Wings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 387.1 | 377.4 | Senators |
| Coaching | 204.2 | 233.3 | Red Wings |
| Offense | 201.6 | 221.6 | Red Wings |
| Defense | 414 | 384.8 | Senators |
| Overtime | 315.3 | 286.3 | Senators |
| Opponents | 50.8 | 58.3 | Red Wings |
| Global | 229 | 211.7 | Senators |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Senators | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 0 · 0 | 2 · 100 |
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 78% · 77.8 | 0% · 0 |
| Scoring Chances / Game | Offense | 12.5 · 6.6 | 21.6 · 82.7 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 4 · 70.6 | 0 · 0 |
| Shot Attempts / Game | Offense | 37.8 · 0 | 56.8 · 68.1 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 20 · 92.3 | 12 · 30.8 |
| Shots Against / OT | Overtime | 0 · 100 | 2 · 42.9 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 20.3% · 77.6 | 47.8% · 21.8 |
| Goals within 5 min after Coach Timeout | Coaching | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 50% · 50 | 0% · 0 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
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Senators vs Red Wings matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings on October 6, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Ottawa Senators power ranking and Detroit Red Wings power ranking.