Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Model projection
Jets 54%Penguins 46%
Projected score3.8 – 3expected goals
Overtime26%chance of OT
Model moneyline-116 / +116Jets / Penguins
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Jets | Penguins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 388.4 | 427.6 | Penguins |
| Coaching | 272.2 | 272.2 | Even |
| Offense | 306.2 | 491.3 | Penguins |
| Defense | 349.1 | 474.6 | Penguins |
| Overtime | 305.5 | 313.6 | Penguins |
| Opponents | 69.8 | 37.9 | Jets |
| Global | 142.1 | 215.2 | Penguins |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Jets | Penguins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Top 5 Production Ratio vs Team (PP) | Offense | 100% · 0 | 83% · 100 |
| Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Defense | 1 · 0 | 0 · 100 |
| Shut Outs | Defense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | -0.33 · 25 | 1.67 · 100 |
| Opp Average Points Top 9 Forwards | Defense | 2 · 100 | 0.6 · 25.3 |
| Opp Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Defense | 2 · 100 | 0.7 · 29.7 |
| Team Discipline | Global | -0.22 · 16.3 | 0.18 · 86 |
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Points/Game | Offense | 0.5 · 33.3 | 1.5 · 100 |
| Opp Shot Attempts / Game | Defense | 62 · 0 | 47.4 · 60.4 |
| Shot-Attempt Share (Off Zone Proxy) | Offense | 43.9% · 29.4 | 63.9% · 89.6 |
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Jets vs Penguins matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins on October 5, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Winnipeg Jets power ranking and Pittsburgh Penguins power ranking.