San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars
Model projection
Sharks 50%Stars 50%
Projected score1.6 – 1.7expected goals
Overtime28%chance of OT
Model moneyline+101 / -101Sharks / Stars
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Sharks | Stars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 357.7 | 440.8 | Stars |
| Coaching | 262.5 | 291.7 | Stars |
| Offense | 260 | 186.8 | Sharks |
| Defense | 361.3 | 338 | Sharks |
| Overtime | 444.8 | 284.4 | Sharks |
| Opponents | 55.8 | 47.8 | Sharks |
| Global | 216.7 | 207.8 | Sharks |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Sharks | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Defense | 1 · 0 | 0 · 100 |
| OT Win Ratio (wins / opportunities) | Overtime | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| OT Wins Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 5 · 66.7 | 0 · 0 |
| Penalty Kill Impacts | Global | 67% · 33.3 | 100% · 100 |
| Top 5 Production Ratio vs Team (PP) | Offense | 100% · 0 | — · 50 |
| Shorthanded Goals Scored | Defense | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 6 · 100 | — · 50 |
| Shots Against / OT | Overtime | 0 · 100 | — · 50 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
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Sharks vs Stars matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars on October 5, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: San Jose Sharks power ranking and Dallas Stars power ranking.