Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Model projection
Flyers 51%Lightning 49%
Projected score2.4 – 2.1expected goals
Overtime28%chance of OT
Model moneyline-106 / +106Flyers / Lightning
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Flyers | Lightning | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 377.6 | 406.3 | Lightning |
| Coaching | 194.5 | 243 | Lightning |
| Offense | 193 | 259.6 | Lightning |
| Defense | 282.4 | 253.9 | Flyers |
| Overtime | 290 | 287.6 | Flyers |
| Opponents | 75.6 | 36.7 | Flyers |
| Global | 199.8 | 233.7 | Lightning |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Flyers | Lightning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| 3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses) | Coaching | 4 · 0 | 1 · 75 |
| Opponent Shots / Game | Defense | 41 · 0 | 25 · 61.5 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 50% · 50 | 100% · 100 |
| Shot-Attempt Share (Off Zone Proxy) | Offense | 34.2% · 0 | 50.6% · 49.6 |
| Opponent Shot-Attempt Share (Zone Proxy) | Defense | 65.8% · 0 | 49.4% · 49.6 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,780 · 34.6 | 612 · 77.5 |
| Shots Against / OT | Overtime | 2 · 42.9 | 0.5 · 85.7 |
| Goals Allowed / PK Minute | Defense | 0.13 · 77.8 | 0.39 · 35.5 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 3 · 50 | 0.5 · 8.3 |
| Opponent Strength (Avg Opponent Power) | Opponents | 329.8 · 75.6 | 255.8 · 36.7 |
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Flyers vs Lightning matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning on October 5, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers power ranking and Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking.