Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Model projection
Capitals 54%Lightning 46%
Projected score0.3 – 0.3expected goals
Overtime61%chance of OT
Model moneyline-119 / +119Capitals / Lightning
Market moneyline+124 / -148DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Capitals | Lightning | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 291.7 | 252.8 | Capitals |
| Offense | 237.5 | 243.5 | Lightning |
| Defense | 322.4 | 305.8 | Capitals |
| Overtime | 347.7 | 282 | Capitals |
| Opponents | 25.6 | 44.7 | Lightning |
| Global | 181.5 | 142.6 | Capitals |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Capitals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.126 · 1.1 | 0.104 · 62.9 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 4 · 57.1 | 0.5 · 7.1 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.115 · 67.9 | 0.098 · 20.9 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 100% · 100 | 67% · 66.7 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 1.7% · 97.6 | 25% · 64.4 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 18.8 · 37.7 | 14.8 · 63.9 |
| Opp Average Points Top 9 Forwards | Defense | 0.3 · 24.5 | 0.1 · 4.1 |
| Opponent Strength (Avg Opponent Power) | Opponents | 221.7 · 25.6 | 254.9 · 44.7 |
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Capitals vs Lightning matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning on October 3, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Washington Capitals power ranking and Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking.