Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Model projection
Senators 20%Maple Leafs 80%
Projected score0.3 – 1.5expected goals
Overtime27%chance of OT
Model moneyline+405 / -405Senators / Maple Leafs
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Senators | Maple Leafs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 204.2 | 361.7 | Maple Leafs |
| Offense | 172.3 | 238.7 | Maple Leafs |
| Defense | 366.4 | 341.9 | Senators |
| Overtime | 284.4 | 295.3 | Maple Leafs |
| Opponents | 64.1 | 56.1 | Senators |
| Global | 142.6 | 259.2 | Maple Leafs |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Senators | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line Stability | Coaching | 0 · 0 | 2 · 100 |
| Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 0 · 0 | 17.5 · 83.3 |
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 0% · 0 | 75% · 75 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.097 · 16.7 | 0.122 · 89.2 |
| Average Points Top 9 Forwards | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1.1 · 62.5 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1,440 · 47.7 |
| Scoring Chances / Game | Offense | 10.4 · 0 | 17.2 · 51.7 |
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Points/Game | Offense | — · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Top 5 Production Ratio vs Team (PP) | Offense | — · 50 | 100% · 0 |
| Top 2 Defensemen Production vs Team (PP) | Offense | — · 50 | 33% · 0 |
| Goals Saved Above Average (Team) | Defense | — · 50 | 2.6 · 100 |
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Senators vs Maple Leafs matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs on October 3, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Ottawa Senators power ranking and Toronto Maple Leafs power ranking.