Montréal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Model projection
Canadiens 57%Penguins 43%
Projected score2.6 – 2.1expected goals
Overtime20%chance of OT
Model moneyline-135 / +135Canadiens / Penguins
Market moneyline-110 / -110DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Canadiens | Penguins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 291.7 | 291.7 | Even |
| Offense | 311.4 | 547 | Penguins |
| Defense | 387.2 | 474.1 | Penguins |
| Overtime | 350.8 | 315.6 | Canadiens |
| Opponents | 43.8 | 36 | Canadiens |
| Global | 350 | 181.5 | Canadiens |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Canadiens | Penguins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Points/Game | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1.5 · 100 |
| Shut Outs | Defense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 3 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Powerplay Impacts | Global | 0% · 100 | 33% · 33.3 |
| Shots / Game | Offense | 24 · 39.1 | 38 · 100 |
| Average Points Top 9 Forwards | Offense | 0.4 · 25 | 1.4 · 81.3 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 50% · 50 | 100% · 100 |
| 3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses) | Coaching | 0 · 100 | 2 · 50 |
| Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Offense | 0.8 · 50 | 1.5 · 100 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Top 5 Production Ratio vs Team (PP) | Offense | — · 50 | 83% · 100 |
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Canadiens vs Penguins matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Montréal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins on October 3, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Montréal Canadiens power ranking and Pittsburgh Penguins power ranking.