Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers
Model projection
Lightning 47%Rangers 53%
Projected score0.3 – 0.3expected goals
Overtime60%chance of OT
Model moneyline+114 / -114Lightning / Rangers
Market moneyline-142 / +120DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Lightning | Rangers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 252.8 | 379.2 | Rangers |
| Offense | 244.2 | 254.3 | Rangers |
| Defense | 303.8 | 247.7 | Lightning |
| Overtime | 282 | 270.4 | Lightning |
| Opponents | 52.1 | 43.1 | Lightning |
| Global | 142.6 | 298.1 | Rangers |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Lightning | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line Stability | Coaching | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| 2-Goal Comeback Wins | Global | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.098 · 20.5 | 0.125 · 95.7 |
| Shots Against / OT | Overtime | 0.5 · 87.5 | 3 · 25 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 0 · 0 | 12 · 57.1 |
| Plus/Minus Overall | Offense | 0 · 51.6 | -16 · 0 |
| Team Plus/Minus (Opponent Context; Audit) | Defense | -0 · 51.6 | 16 · 0 |
| Team Plus/Minus (Defense Context; Duplicate) | Defense | 0 · 51.6 | -16 · 0 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | — · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Bottom-Pair Defensemen Points/Game | Offense | — · 50 | 0 · 0 |
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Lightning vs Rangers matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers on October 1, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking and New York Rangers power ranking.