Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers
Model projection
Penguins 47%Flyers 53%
Projected score0.3 – 0.4expected goals
Overtime61%chance of OT
Model moneyline+114 / -114Penguins / Flyers
Market moneyline+120 / -142DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Penguins | Flyers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 213.9 | 175 | Penguins |
| Offense | 278.5 | 244.5 | Penguins |
| Defense | 328 | 386.8 | Flyers |
| Overtime | 284.4 | 284.4 | Even |
| Opponents | 25.9 | 69.7 | Flyers |
| Global | 116.7 | 116.7 | Even |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Penguins | Flyers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Average Points Top 9 Forwards | Defense | 0 · 0 | 0.3 · 54.5 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.112 · 49.2 | 0.091 · 97.7 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 18.3 · 41 | 11 · 88.5 |
| Opponent Strength (Avg Opponent Power) | Opponents | 217 · 25.9 | 295.1 · 69.7 |
| Scoring Chances / Game | Offense | 22 · 88.5 | 17.5 · 54.2 |
| 3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses) | Coaching | 2 · 33.3 | 3 · 0 |
| Opp Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Defense | 0 · 0 | 0.3 · 33.3 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 46.5% · 70.7 | 25% · 38 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 34.9% · 46.9 | 21.5% · 67.2 |
| Shot Attempts / Game | Offense | 54.5 · 55.1 | 46.8 · 35.3 |
| Opp Shot Attempts / Game | Defense | 47.5 · 28.8 | 38.8 · 48.6 |
| Shots / Game | Offense | 24.8 · 44.3 | 21.5 · 29.5 |
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Penguins vs Flyers matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers on September 30, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Pittsburgh Penguins power ranking and Philadelphia Flyers power ranking.