New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Model projection
Islanders 17%Maple Leafs 83%
Projected score0.3 – 1.6expected goals
Overtime24%chance of OT
Model moneyline+495 / -495Islanders / Maple Leafs
Market moneyline+100 / -120DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Islanders | Maple Leafs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 97.2 | 350 | Maple Leafs |
| Offense | 262.7 | 268.9 | Maple Leafs |
| Defense | 302.2 | 339.6 | Maple Leafs |
| Overtime | 284.4 | 298.5 | Maple Leafs |
| Opponents | 36.3 | 67.3 | Maple Leafs |
| Global | 259.2 | 259.2 | Even |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Islanders | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line Stability | Coaching | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit | Offense | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| 2-Goal Comeback Wins | Global | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| 3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses) | Coaching | 2 · 33.3 | 0 · 100 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 0 · 0 | 14 · 66.7 |
| Opp Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Defense | 0 · 0 | 0.5 · 60 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 65.7% · 0 | 30.5% · 53.6 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 0% · 0 | 50% · 50 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | — · 50 | 0 · 0 |
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs on September 30, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: New York Islanders power ranking and Toronto Maple Leafs power ranking.