Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Model projection
Canadiens 46%Maple Leafs 54%
Projected score2.7 – 3.1expected goals
Overtime18%chance of OT
Model moneyline+119 / -119Canadiens / Maple Leafs
Market moneyline-250 / +190DraftKings
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Canadiens | Maple Leafs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 350 | 350 | Even |
| Offense | 317.9 | 268.9 | Canadiens |
| Defense | 388.3 | 339.6 | Canadiens |
| Overtime | 350.8 | 298.5 | Canadiens |
| Opponents | 54.6 | 67.3 | Maple Leafs |
| Global | 350 | 259.2 | Canadiens |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Canadiens | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Points/Game | Offense | 0.67 · 66.7 | 0 · 0 |
| Bottom-6 Forwards Plus/Minus per Game | Defense | 0.83 · 91.7 | -0.5 · 25 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 3 · 100 | 1 · 33.3 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
| Opp Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Defense | 0.1 · 16.7 | 0.5 · 60 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.111 · 55 | 0.125 · 95.4 |
| Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Offense | 0.8 · 50 | 0.3 · 16.7 |
| Plus/Minus Overall | Offense | 5 · 67.7 | -5 · 35.5 |
Open the interactive game page
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs on September 29, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Montréal Canadiens power ranking and Toronto Maple Leafs power ranking.