Capitals vs Flyers — NHL Prediction & Analytics (September 26, 2026)

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers

September 26, 2026 · 5:00 PM EDT · Final · Final 5–1

Model projection

Capitals 55%Flyers 45%

Projected score3.1 – 2.7expected goals

Overtime17%chance of OT

Model moneyline-123 / +123Capitals / Flyers

Market moneyline— / —no stored line

Section edges

Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.

Section	Capitals	Flyers	Edge
Front Office	300	300	Even
Coaching	291.7	175	Capitals
Offense	237.7	244.5	Flyers
Defense	333.5	386.8	Flyers
Overtime	347.7	284.4	Capitals
Opponents	69.1	69.7	Flyers
Global	181.5	116.7	Capitals

Metric matchup

The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.

Metric	Section	Capitals	Flyers
3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses)	Coaching	0 · 100	3 · 0
Opp Comebacks in 3rd Periods	Defense	1 · 0	0 · 100
Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT)	Overtime	1 · 100	0 · 0
Opponent Shot Quality (allowed)	Defense	0.126 · 16.7	0.091 · 97.7
Opp Scoring Chances / Game	Defense	18.8 · 37.7	11 · 88.5
Losses Despite High Scoring Chances	Global	1 · 50	0 · 0
Shots Against / OT	Overtime	0.5 · 87.5	— · 50
Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt)	Offense	0.115 · 66.4	0.127 · 100
Comeback Wins	Global	1 · 33.3	0 · 0
Opp Time with the Lead	Defense	1.7% · 97.5	21.5% · 67.2
Goals Against / Game	Defense	2 · 66.7	3.8 · 37.5
Time with the Lead	Offense	41.5% · 63.1	25% · 38

Capitals vs Flyers matchup

This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers on September 26, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.

Team pages: Washington Capitals power ranking and Philadelphia Flyers power ranking.