Lightning vs Panthers — NHL Prediction & Analytics (September 26, 2026)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers

September 26, 2026 · 6:00 PM EDT · Final · Final 3–2

Model projection

Lightning 66%Panthers 34%

Projected score3.7 – 2.7expected goals

Overtime15%chance of OT

Model moneyline-192 / +192Lightning / Panthers

Market moneyline— / —no stored line

Section edges

Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.

Section	Lightning	Panthers	Edge
Front Office	300	300	Even
Coaching	252.8	338.3	Panthers
Offense	244.2	260	Panthers
Defense	303.8	405.9	Panthers
Overtime	282	386	Panthers
Opponents	52.1	38.3	Lightning
Global	142.6	259.2	Panthers

Metric matchup

The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.

Metric	Section	Lightning	Panthers
Line Stability	Coaching	0 · 0	1 · 100
Top 5 Players Production Ratio	Offense	0% · 0	100% · 100
Opp Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit	Defense	1 · 0	0 · 100
Primary Goalie Game Ratio	Defense	0% · 0	100% · 100
Shut Outs	Defense	0 · 0	1 · 100
OT Win Ratio (wins / opportunities)	Overtime	0% · 0	100% · 100
Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT)	Overtime	0 · 0	1 · 100
OT Wins Ratio	Global	0% · 0	100% · 100
Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy)	Defense	0 · 100	1,976 · 28.3
Shorthanded Opportunities / PK Minute (Proxy)	Defense	0 · 100	0.69 · 31.1
Blocked Shots / Game	Defense	0 · 0	13 · 61.9
Opp Shot Attempts / Game	Defense	42 · 41.2	16 · 100

Lightning vs Panthers matchup

This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers on September 26, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.

Team pages: Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking and Florida Panthers power ranking.