Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators
Model projection
Canadiens 59%Senators 41%
Projected score3.8 – 3.3expected goals
Overtime15%chance of OT
Model moneyline-146 / +146Canadiens / Senators
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Canadiens | Senators | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 350 | 194.5 | Canadiens |
| Offense | 317.9 | 172.6 | Canadiens |
| Defense | 388.3 | 379 | Canadiens |
| Overtime | 350.8 | 284.4 | Canadiens |
| Opponents | 54.6 | 75.9 | Senators |
| Global | 350 | 142.6 | Canadiens |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Canadiens | Senators |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line Stability | Coaching | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Regulation Win Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 3 · 100 | 1 · 33.3 |
| Individual Talent Quality (OT) | Overtime | 4 · 57.1 | 0 · 0 |
| Opp Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Defense | 0.1 · 16.7 | 0.6 · 73.3 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 11 · 52.4 | 0 · 0 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,440 · 47.7 | 0 · 100 |
| Shot Attempts / Game | Offense | 55 · 56.4 | 34.8 · 4.6 |
| Average Points Top 4 Defensemen | Offense | 0.8 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
Open the interactive game page
Canadiens vs Senators matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators on September 26, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Montréal Canadiens power ranking and Ottawa Senators power ranking.