Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild
Model projection
Stars 41%Wild 59%
Projected score3.1 – 3.6expected goals
Overtime15%chance of OT
Model moneyline+142 / -142Stars / Wild
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Stars | Wild | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 291.7 | 233.3 | Stars |
| Offense | 234.6 | 253 | Wild |
| Defense | 341 | 357 | Wild |
| Overtime | 284.4 | 320.3 | Wild |
| Opponents | 41.8 | 36.3 | Stars |
| Global | 116.7 | 220.3 | Wild |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Stars | Wild |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 0 · 0 | 1 · 100 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 0 · 0 | 2 · 100 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 65.8% · 100 | 5.3% · 8 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 0% · 100 | 48.7% · 25.9 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.097 · 17.7 | 0.117 · 72.2 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 100% · 100 | 50% · 50 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 0 · 0 | 1 · 50 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | — · 50 | 0.5 · 7.1 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 19.8 · 31.1 | 14 · 68.9 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 0 · 0 | 1 · 33.3 |
| Opponent Shots / Game | Defense | 26.5 · 47.7 | 19.5 · 79.5 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.112 · 48.8 | 0.099 · 79.1 |
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Stars vs Wild matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild on September 25, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Dallas Stars power ranking and Minnesota Wild power ranking.