Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Model projection
Panthers 31%Lightning 69%
Projected score2.6 – 3.8expected goals
Overtime14%chance of OT
Model moneyline+226 / -226Panthers / Lightning
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Panthers | Lightning | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 338.3 | 252.8 | Panthers |
| Offense | 260 | 244.2 | Panthers |
| Defense | 405.9 | 303.8 | Panthers |
| Overtime | 386 | 282 | Panthers |
| Opponents | 38.3 | 52.1 | Lightning |
| Global | 259.2 | 142.6 | Panthers |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Panthers | Lightning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line Stability | Coaching | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Top 5 Players Production Ratio | Offense | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Opp Comebacks from 2+ Goal Deficit | Defense | 0 · 100 | 1 · 0 |
| Primary Goalie Game Ratio | Defense | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Shut Outs | Defense | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| OT Win Ratio (wins / opportunities) | Overtime | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| OT Wins Ratio | Global | 100% · 100 | 0% · 0 |
| Penalty-Kill TOI per Game (Def Zone Proxy) | Defense | 1,976 · 28.3 | 0 · 100 |
| Shorthanded Opportunities / PK Minute (Proxy) | Defense | 0.69 · 31.1 | 0 · 100 |
| Blocked Shots / Game | Defense | 13 · 61.9 | 0 · 0 |
| Opp Shot Attempts / Game | Defense | 16 · 100 | 42 · 41.2 |
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Panthers vs Lightning matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning on September 24, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Florida Panthers power ranking and Tampa Bay Lightning power ranking.