Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars
Model projection
Wild 55%Stars 45%
Projected score3.5 – 3.2expected goals
Overtime16%chance of OT
Model moneyline-121 / +121Wild / Stars
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Wild | Stars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 233.3 | 291.7 | Stars |
| Offense | 253 | 234.6 | Wild |
| Defense | 357 | 341 | Wild |
| Overtime | 320.3 | 284.4 | Wild |
| Opponents | 36.3 | 41.8 | Stars |
| Global | 220.3 | 116.7 | Wild |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Wild | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 2 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 5.3% · 8 | 65.8% · 100 |
| Opp Time with the Lead | Defense | 48.7% · 25.9 | 0% · 100 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.117 · 72.2 | 0.097 · 17.7 |
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 50% · 50 | 100% · 100 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 0.5 · 7.1 | — · 50 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 14 · 68.9 | 19.8 · 31.1 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 1 · 33.3 | 0 · 0 |
| Opponent Shots / Game | Defense | 19.5 · 79.5 | 26.5 · 47.7 |
| Opponent Shot Quality (allowed) | Defense | 0.099 · 79.1 | 0.112 · 48.8 |
Open the interactive game page
Wild vs Stars matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars on September 23, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Minnesota Wild power ranking and Dallas Stars power ranking.