Detroit Red Wings vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Model projection
Red Wings 47%Penguins 54%
Projected score3 – 3.3expected goals
Overtime16%chance of OT
Model moneyline+115 / -115Red Wings / Penguins
Market moneyline— / —no stored line
Section edges
Season-level model scores for each side. The higher score owns the edge in that part of the game.
| Section | Red Wings | Penguins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front Office | 300 | 300 | Even |
| Coaching | 233.3 | 213.9 | Red Wings |
| Offense | 276.2 | 278.5 | Penguins |
| Defense | 329.1 | 328 | Red Wings |
| Overtime | 309.4 | 284.4 | Red Wings |
| Opponents | 24.2 | 25.9 | Penguins |
| Global | 207.4 | 116.7 | Red Wings |
Metric matchup
The largest gaps between the two clubs across the model's shared metrics, with each side's raw value and 0–100 league score.
| Metric | Section | Red Wings | Penguins |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 10 Minutes Goals For/Against | Coaching | 0% · 0 | 100% · 100 |
| Number of Different Goal Scorers (OT) | Overtime | 1 · 100 | 0 · 0 |
| 3+ Goal Routes (Blowout Losses) | Coaching | 0 · 100 | 2 · 33.3 |
| Comeback Wins | Global | 2 · 66.7 | 0 · 0 |
| Goals within 5 min after Coach Timeout | Coaching | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Comebacks in 3rd Periods | Offense | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Losses Despite High Scoring Chances | Global | 1 · 50 | 0 · 0 |
| Time with the Lead | Offense | 14.8% · 22.5 | 46.5% · 70.7 |
| Shots / OT | Overtime | 0.5 · 7.1 | — · 50 |
| Shot Quality (avg danger/attempt) | Offense | 0.112 · 59.7 | 0.125 · 95.3 |
| Shot Attempts / Game | Offense | 59.8 · 68.6 | 54.5 · 55.1 |
| Opp Scoring Chances / Game | Defense | 16.3 · 54.1 | 18.3 · 41 |
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Red Wings vs Penguins matchup
This page summarizes the NHL Power Ranking model's view of Detroit Red Wings vs Pittsburgh Penguins on September 22, 2026. Win probabilities come from the head-to-head engine, which blends each club's stored power sections with goaltending, schedule rest and available roster context. Section edges show where each side owns a season-long advantage; the metric table lists the largest measured gaps.
Team pages: Detroit Red Wings power ranking and Pittsburgh Penguins power ranking.